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| #1020233 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 07.Oct.2020) TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
