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| #1020308 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 07.Oct.2020) TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
