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| #102112 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 04.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. HOWEVER...THE WIND WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY. OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD EASILY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...AND IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SHEAR. A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION. THE 6-HOURLY AVERAGED MOTION IS 275/13...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION THAN EARLIER. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 20.9N 70.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.2N 72.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 75.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 80.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 85.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 24.5N 91.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 96.0W 40 KT |
