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| #1022060 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 21.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95 kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first 12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow. No changes were made to the track forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1800Z 29.4N 59.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake |
