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| #1022213 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 22.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity estimates haven`t changed much yet, they were generally higher than the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing more weight on the aircraft data. Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days. The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon`s strength tomorrow or Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane`s wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), and that`s reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin |
