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| #1022437 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 24.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100 UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind relationships. Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
