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| #1022633 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 25.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 83.8W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches. Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S. Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
