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| #1022660 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 26.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.3W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to Dzilam. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Tulum to Punta Allen and from west of Dzilam to Progreso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba * South of Tulum to Punta Allen * West of Dzilam to Progreso A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
