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| #1022947 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:27 AM 28.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 91.8W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been extended eastward to the Walton/Bay County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Zeta is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama this evening and tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
