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| #1024168 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:53 PM 06.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with further strengthening likely through Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
