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| #1024941 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 AM 12.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...ETA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA... ...STILL PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 83.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 50 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches) based on surface observations from Cedar Key. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
