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| #1025144 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 13.Nov.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm. There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week. Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 31.7N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 31.5N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 31.3N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 31.0N 19.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 31.1N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 31.3N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z 32.8N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 37.4N 15.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
