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| #1025307 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:59 PM 14.Nov.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Patuca. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.4 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Warning area by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Providencia by Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
