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| #1025507 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:39 PM 15.Nov.2020) TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in the hurricane overnight. Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall, the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres. 3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
