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| #1025645 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 PM 16.Nov.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 83.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border * Bay Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over Central America on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 103 mph (166 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 920 mb (27.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota`s eyewall and these winds will spread inland across northern Nicaragua during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the islands of Providencia and San Andres. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras. El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts |
