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| #1025706 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 17.Nov.2020) TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core, however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America. While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life- threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta`s destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
