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| #1045949 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 22.May.2021) TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
