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| #1048851 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 15.Jun.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Bill remains a fairly well organized tropical storm. Microwave satellite data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly tight core and curved bands on the north and west sides of the circulation. However, drier air is wrapping into the southeast portion of the storm, and convection has been decreasing in intensity over the past couple of hours. A very recent ASCAT-A pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The tropical storm is racing northeastward, and the latest initial motion is estimated to be 055/33 kt. Bill is embedded in the mid-latitude jet stream and a continued fast northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. This motion should take the storm over much cooler waters on the north side of the Gulf Stream Current in about 12 hours. These cold waters, drier air, and mid-latitude dynamics should cause Bill to transition to an extratropical cyclone later today. All of the models agree that the extratropical cyclone should dissipate in 24 to 36 hours over or near Atlantic Canada. Bill will likely remain at about the same intensity until it dissipates by late Wednesday. It should be noted that given the fast forward speed, most of the strong winds will be on the southeast side of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 40.5N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 43.4N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 47.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
