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| #1048898 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 15.Jun.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Bill is well on its way to becoming an extratropical cyclone. The convective pattern has become quite asymmetric with the center exposed to the southwest of the weakening thunderstorms. The center itself has become stretched, and in fact, surrounding observations suggest that the surface center may no longer be closed. In addition, a warm front appears to be forming on the storm`s southeast side. Based on these trends, it seems very likely that Bill won`t be around for long as a tropical storm. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but that could be a little generous. The initial motion remains a very fast 055/31 kt. A continued fast east-northeast to northeast motion in the mid-latitude jet stream is expected until the cyclone dissipates within the next 12-24 hours near Atlantic Canada. Some weakening seems likely prior to dissipation due to the cyclone moving over much colder SSTs while remaining in a strong wind shear environment. Due to the system`s fast forward speed, the strong winds will remain confined to the south and east sides of the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 41.6N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
