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| #1049440 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 19.Jun.2021) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 89.7W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, and for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 89.7 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...1-2 ft Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
