Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1049513 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 19.Jun.2021) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Claudette continues to move inland with its center now located over southwestern Alabama. Surface observations indicate that the system has weakened, and based on that information the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. This makes Claudette a tropical depression. The cyclone is still producing gusty winds and bands of heavy rain across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. As expected, the tropical depression has turned to the northeast and accelerated some, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 040/14 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except again a little to the right at the longer range forecast times. Some additional weakening seems likely during the next day or so while Claudette moves across the southeast U.S. However, most of the models show the system regaining some strength when it moves across the Carolinas and over the western Atlantic waters Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than previous runs, and overall the remainder of the intensity guidance is largely unchanged from the previous cyclone. Based on the latest models, the NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are expected across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 32.9N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1800Z 33.7N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0600Z 34.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 36.4N 73.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/0600Z 39.1N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 42.3N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/1800Z 51.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
