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| #1049713 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 20.Jun.2021) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough. Claudette`s forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN. No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
