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| #1051056 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 01.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 51.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
