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| #1051124 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 01.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA PALENQUE * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 55.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN |
