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| #1051199 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:26 AM 02.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
