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| #1051575 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 05.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 79.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
