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| #1051813 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 06.Jul.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast. Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday. Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no other changes have been made to the official forecast. The NHC track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 25.4N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
