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| #10548 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 AM 27.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004 DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA ARE SHOWING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE WIND FIELD ALOFT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS AROUND IN RAINBANDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER DECAY OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE EXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/10...A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ALLOW JEANNE TO RECURVE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE JEANNE EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ARE ALL NOW SUGGESTING A DECAPITATION SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED WITH IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND WHILE THE UPPER PORTION CONTINUES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE DISPOSITION OF ANY ABANDONED REMNANT MAY DEPEND ON WHERE LISA IS IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE NOGAPS HAS THE SOUTHERN REMNANT OF JEANNE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO LISA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 48 HOURS AND CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. AS JEANNE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME BRIEF EXTRATROPICAL/FRONTAL RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 30.5N 83.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 31.9N 83.8W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/0600Z 33.7N 82.9W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/1800Z 35.5N 80.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/0600Z 36.5N 76.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 37.5N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0600Z 37.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
