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| #1056625 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 12.Aug.2021) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 75.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas by Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is motion is expected through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening through Saturday, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later tonight or early Friday. Fred is expected to be a tropical storm as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
