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| #1056797 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 14.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE... ...EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 55.6W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 55.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with the Greater Antilles. Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the British Virgin beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts later today into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. Heavy rainfall from this system could impact Florida late next week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto |
