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| #1056884 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 14.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...SQUALLY WEATHER FROM GRACE SPREADING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES WILL BE A CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 60.7W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo Engano * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for this area tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Grace is moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. Over Haiti...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding as well as potential mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
