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| #1056924 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 14.Aug.2021) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area early Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night over parts of the western Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
