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| #1057056 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 15.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 67.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from the southern Haitian border to Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
