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| #1057106 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 15.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 68.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through Monday. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
