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| #1057196 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 16.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...CENTER OF GRACE JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 71.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coasts of the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern coasts of the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
