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| #1057220 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
