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| #1057318 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 AM 17.Aug.2021) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 85.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF EUFAULA ALABAMA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue early this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by late morning and continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
