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| #1057764 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 PM 19.Aug.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 During the past few hours, the center of Grace has emerged over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated convection is currently poorly organized and mainly occuring in a band to the east of the center. However, data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that 55 kt surface winds are occurring about 20 n mi northeast of the center, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The aircraft also reported that the minimum central pressure was near 994 mb. Conditions appear favorable for re-intensification once the convection becomes better organized near the center, a process that could take several more hours. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt in 24 h, just before the center makes landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico. The intensity for this part of the forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and is near the intensity consensus. After landfall, Grace is expected to weaken rapidly, with the circulation dissipating over the mountains of Mexico just after 48 h. The remnants of Grace are expected to subsequently move into the Pacific and develop into a new tropical cyclone there. The cyclone has nudged a little northward since the last advisory, and the initial motion is 280/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track. Strong mid-level ridging should steer Grace westward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion through 48 h. This motion should take the center across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to a landfall in mainland Mexico in just over 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should continue west-southwestward into the mountains of Mexico until dissipation. The new forecast track is close to the consensus models and has only minor adjustments since the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.8N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.1N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 19.6N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
