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| #1057776 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 20.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 92.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Progresso to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 92.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward motion is expected early this morning, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning later today. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening or tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Grace is re-strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely until Grace makes landfall, and the system is expected to regain hurricane strength later this morning. After landfall, Grace should weaken rapidly as it moves into the mountains of central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. An automated observing site on Cayo Arenas, located about 120 miles (190 km) northeast of the center of Grace, has reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...an additional to 3 inches of rain overnight, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Lingering areas of flash and urban flooding will be possible through early this morning. Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
