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| #1057925 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 20.Aug.2021) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... ...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven |
