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| #1058031 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 21.Aug.2021) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that the system`s organization is degrading, but there is still some deep convection near the center with a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning. After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally westward motion until dissipation on Sunday. The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. Key Messages: 1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
