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| #1058188 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 AM 22.Aug.2021) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...CENTER OF HENRI MOVING CLOSER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 71.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Long Island, the southern coast of New England, and Block Island has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha`s Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island and New York City * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha`s Vineyard A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A north- northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island later this morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn back toward the north and an even slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening will be possible this morning, but Henri is still forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
