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| #1058720 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 26.Aug.2021) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity. The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown |
