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#1058738 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:44 PM 26.Aug.2021)
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or over
the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, and the
northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown