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#1058962 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 27.Aug.2021)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around
2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt.
Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has
remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a
well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In
addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both
intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Ida and so far
have found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. Based on
that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A subtropical
ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift
westward through the weekend. This feature should continue to
provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. The models
remain in very good agreement and show Ida making landfall in
Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning. After the storm moves
inland, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and then
the northeast is predicted as Ida moves in the flow on the northwest
and north sides of the ridge. Since the models are tightly clustered
and because the steering flow is well pronounced, there is high
confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids,
which are often the most accurate models. Users are again reminded
to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Ida is expected to remain in conducive conditions for
intensification until it reaches the central Gulf coast. The global
models show a very favorable upper-level wind pattern over the storm
and abundant environmental moisture. These conducive atmospheric
conditions combined with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters should
allow Ida to rapidly intensify this weekend. In fact, it seems
likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of
Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high. All of the
models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of
spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows
Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to
reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due
to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear.

As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion
of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is
largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical
storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore,
all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous
event need to be made on Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue for the next few hours in portions of western
Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in
effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides
are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.0N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi