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| #1059395 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 29.Aug.2021) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center. Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period, then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus. The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to the track may be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto |
