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| #106104 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 25.Aug.2006) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2006 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 67.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 25SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W...OVER JAMAICA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 67.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z |
