Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 76 (Nicholas) , Major: 92 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1146 (Michael) Major: 1146 (Michael)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1061367 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 12.Sep.2021)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE PASS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO RUTHERFORD
BEACH LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 95.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH