Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 76 (Nicholas) , Major: 92 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1146 (Michael) Major: 1146 (Michael)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1061534 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 13.Sep.2021)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...IS
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS...TEXAS...IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTH TO FREEPORT, TEXAS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR..
* PORT O'CONNOR TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH