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| #1061536 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 13.Sep.2021) TCDAT4 Hurricane Nicholas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas, reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued. No additional strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt. The system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to a crawl near southwestern Louisiana. The official forecast is slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
